Hybrid warfare is taking forms never seen before. From advanced cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns to weaponized migration, the list is long and growing. Elisabeth Braw, an internationally acclaimed Swedish-born expert on gray-zone and hybrid threats, says that Russia has been very creative in coming up with new hybrid operations of late.
“There really has been an explosion in innovation, with, for example, weaponized migration, GPS interference, cutting undersea cables and use of the shadow fleet,” lists Braw, a former journalist who now serves as a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Her book on hybrid threats, The Defender’s Dilemma: Identifying and Deterring Gray-Zone Aggression, came out in 2022.
According to Braw, Russia is keen on targeting easy targets, such as powerlines or cables, which cause a big nuisance with little effort, possibly even fermenting panic as a bonus – causing people to wonder, what will the Russians do next?
“China is doing the same thing, especially in its coastal areas,” she says, adding that often times it is not western countries but companies that are being targeted.
Murder Incorporated
When it comes to Russia, the country has not shied away even from political assassinations performed abroad. According to Braw, assassinations are likely to “go commercial” in the future:
“Targeting business leaders in the west is certainly one way to make people afraid and further your aims.”
In addition, border violations – staged or real – are certainly included in the Russian “dirty tricks” bag. “We may see more border activity designed to provoke a reaction in one way or another,” she says, assessing the Russian actions as “shameless”.
Race to Nato
As Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the clock started ticking on the Nato membership of Finland and Sweden. Both countries immediately felt exposed and sought the safety of the US-lead Atlantic alliance – after decades of insisting that there is no need for such a move. Braw admits to being taken back by the sudden rush of the events:
“For Swedish social democrats, who were in power at the time, it was an article of faith to say no to Nato. It was inconceivable that this would ever change,” Braw looks back.
However, the one caveat left by the Swedish decision-makers was this: if Finland is ever going to become a member, we are willing to reconsider our position. “And that’s exactly what happened. Finland had a government lead by social democrats, too, but it was very active in pursuing Nato membership. Sweden felt that it had to follow.”
Braw recognizes that this was probably the one time when Finland, historically the “little brother” to Sweden, took the leading role. “When opinions reversed, it was certainly quite extraordinary few months.”
Eye on naval capabilities
Now, with both countries firmly in Nato, it’s a good time to take stock of each member’s individual assets and capabilities. Sweden, for one, boasts a strong navy which is no small thing in the present situation.
“It’s especially important now, as Russia is expanding its submarine fleet.”
Braw zeroes in on the Baltic Sea – as well as other key maritime areas – in her upcoming book, The Undersea War. The book comes out in November 2026.
Road to Kouvola
Elisabeth Braw calls herself “a big fan” of Finland, having visited the country numerous times. However, she will be making the trip to Kouvola for the very first time this September. “From the looks of it, it’s going to be a great conference and I’m very excited to be there,” Braw says, adding that she’s looking forward to engaging in lively discussions at the event.